Impact of Pacific Typhoons and El Niño on Indian Southwest Monsoon in 2026

Key Facts

• Super Typhoon Dolphin was tracked near Japan in August 2026.
• Developing El Niño conditions in 2026 led to a delayed onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala on 4 June 2026, three days after the normal date of 1 June.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projected 2026 monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average (LPA).
• Typhoons in the western Pacific influence the Indian monsoon by changing the monsoon trough, suppressing Bay of Bengal cyclones, and altering moisture transport over the Indian subcontinent.
• The 2026 typhoon season was forecasted to have an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) approximately 1.4 times the 1991–2020 average, indicating elevated tropical cyclone activity.
• The 2025 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, including the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, was the deadliest and costliest since 2008, with severe cyclonic storms Senyar and Ditwah causing flooding and fatalities.

Background & Context

• Pacific typhoons and warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are linked with changes in the Indian Southwest Monsoon through shifts in atmospheric circulation, rainfall distribution, and cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal and the North Indian Ocean.
• El Niño is the periodic abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• La Niña is the cooler phase of ENSO and is often associated with stronger monsoon conditions over parts of India.
• The North Indian Ocean cyclone season encompasses tropical cyclones affecting the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
• The term "long-period average" (LPA) is used by the India Meteorological Department for rainfall comparison across monsoon seasons.
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) measures the total energy of tropical cyclones during a season and is a key metric to understand cyclone intensity and duration.

Why This Matters for Exams / Exam Relevance

• Understanding the complex interplay between Pacific typhoons, El Niño, and the Indian monsoon is fundamental for questions related to climate influence on monsoon variability.
• Key data points such as the delayed monsoon onset on 4 June 2026 and monsoon rainfall projection at 90% LPA are relevant for multiple-choice questions (MCQs) and descriptive answers.
• Familiarity with terms like Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), long-period average (LPA), and specific cyclone names (Dolphin, Senyar, Ditwah) can benefit candidates in geography and environment sections.
• The impact of global atmospheric circulation and tropical cyclone activity on Indian agriculture, water resources, and economy frequently appears in competitive examinations.

Points to Remember

• El Niño conditions delayed the Kerala monsoon onset by three days in 2026.
• Super Typhoon Dolphin near Japan had an indirect suppressive effect on the Indian monsoon circulation and rainfall.
• The 2026 typhoon season was forecasted to have 1.4 times the ACE of the 1991–2020 average, indicating enhanced Pacific tropical cyclone activity.
• The India Meteorological Department projected monsoon rainfall in 2026 at 90% of the long-period average.
• Pacific typhoons can suppress Bay of Bengal cyclone formation, influencing the strength and distribution of the Indian monsoon.
• The 2025 North Indian Ocean cyclone season was extremely deadly and costly, with notable storms Senyar and Ditwah causing severe regional impacts.